The Upsetter's Guide to The Olympics

Photo by Howard Lao

The Upsetter’s Guide to The Olympics

Advice Jeff Merrill

(Take it or leave it)

By now you’ve seen predictions from every major outlet, social media coverage account and random guy on Twitter or at your local all comer’s series whispering to you their picks while catching their breath after a 5:05 pure guts mile. They of course pick the favorites to win, the athletes who’ve been on top of the game, because the best indicator for how things will play out in the future is past results.

But what’s the payout for being right about the obvious?

That’s right,

it’s tiny.

That was an obvious question, and you get the world’s smallest dopamine hit for being right.

This is a breakdown of select events for the adrenaline junky who craves the moonshot and feels nothing from laying down a $100 with the prospect of gaining $14. This is for the thrill-seeking sickos who want to sit tailbone scraping edge of couch cushion, clenching their sweat-soaked bills and praying for chaos.

Get Rich or Die Tryin’.

(This outlet does not condone betting with big money, which is why we’re championing big payouts with little money down. Bet responsibly, or even figuratively, my friends)

All odds are for the win.

Odds are subject to shift.

Men’s 1500m

The Case for Hobbs Kessler at +6000

Throwing $10 down for Hobbs, you stand to gain $600. Translating this to whoever is backing Grand Slam Track, you could put a measly $1m down and gain $60m if Hobbs skips across that purple track first. That’s enough to fund 2 more years of GST, so let’s be smart about this and think about the future.

Hobbs made the US Olympic team coming in third at the Trials behind Cole Hocker and Yared Nuguse. He wasn’t shy about discussing the weight lifted from his shoulders in making the team. The Trials race had been the one circled in red pen for 3 years, ever since he signed on the dotted line with Adidas straight outta high school. He let loose afterwards, as one does, procured himself a case of the bird flu in the form of the particular strain of Covid native to the Wild Duck.

No one knows for sure just how big the weight on his shoulders had been. He ran the Trials 1500m Final rather mechanically, like taking a driving test, making sure to deliberately make all the right moves, check his mirrors and make his signals. He passed and earned the right to fly the colors.

Following the 1500m Final, he jumped in the 800m heats and ripped off a 1:46 and two 1:43s. None of the top contenders in the 1500m have sniffed 1:43. Hobbs is only 21, and the leaps that he’s been making are great. He’s still raw and finding himself.

A possible concern might have been whether he has the strength to carry him through the rounds. He’s young and doesn’t have the 5000m chops of the others, but he did run 6 rounds at the Trials with arguably his most impressive race as his last- a 1:43.64 for silver behind the upsetter’s pick for the 800m in the 800m final.

He also owns a World Indoor bronze medal, won this winter. He’s quickly learning tactics from his tutors, Ron Warhurst and 2-time Olympic medalist, Nick Willis, and we have been incredibly impressed with how studious he has become when it comes to the tactical trade as well as the physiological as it pertains to his owns biomechanical toolset.

He looked relaxed through the first round on the purple track, more like the 800m trials version of himself than the 1500m trials version- like he’d been studying but is now confident enough to let his instincts take over, knowing that his instincts have been sharpened by repetition and practice.

At this point, I know I’ve talked the GST folks into it, and I’m getting there myself… alright, I won’t lie to you, I put $10 on him last week.

If he makes it to the Final, we’ll find out how big that weight on his shoulders really was. The question is, if we find out it was a boulder, do you want to be sitting there without any skin in the game?

The Case for Cole Hocker at +1500

This one is a hedge, as I actually consider Hocker one of the favorites. Call me an American homer if you will, but it will only make my painted gut swell with pride. I’m adding him in here because he’s listed at +1500 for the win, and most fanboys content to put their Benjamin down on Ingebrigtsen to pull back $40 would scoff at the idea, thinking our dreamy golden-haired boy wonder could never. Well guess what, those are the same hiked-up draw-stringed shorts wearing know-it-alls that said Hocker couldn’t beat Nuguse at the Trials, and that not in a million years would Wightman outkick Ingebrigtsen for a world title. Do you want to be the guy who got the obvious thing right along with everyone else? Or do you want to be the guy who got it right when everyone else got it wrong? Hocker closed in 52 seconds to run 3:30 at the Trials. He’s got more explosive get up in the final lap than anyone else in the field and a nose for the finish line that leads him through boxes and in and out of trouble. Although more unbridled when he’s on the move than the smooth and stealthy Matthew Centrowitz was, he has shown himself to be a championship racer as opposed to a scalper of Diamond League W’s. He can hide in the pack out of sight and escape into the open at the right moment. He looks like a cat sprinting out from under a parked car with 150 to go and if he can stay within sniffing distance of the battle between Jakob and Josh, he could blow by while they’re caught up hand fighting.

Women’s 1500m

The Case for Elle St. Pierre at +4,000

What is there to say about this one? In all honesty, I clicked into this odds sheet fully expecting to be able to get great odds for Nikki Hiltz, but the oddsmakers have caught onto Hiltz’s game and respect it, giving them +800. You do you, but as is the upsetter’s rule, we don’t bet on anyone under 10/1 odds. Close, but no cigar.

Faith Kipyegon has such a stranglehold on the event, that Hiltz’s +800 ranks them second in the field, along with Gudaf Tsegay. Kipyegon is -700, which means that the house is so confident in her that someone would have to lay $210m in order to win something of any significance to Grand Slam Track. In fairness, Kipyegon hasn’t lost a 1500m since 2021, when she got second to Sifan Hassan at the Golden Gala, and in that year she still won the Olympic Title…. but the stronger the case for the favorite, the better it is for the upsetter.

Elle St. Pierre started her season on a tear, ripping indoor races with Jess Hull- the same Jess Hull that just rode Kipyegon’s coattails to the the line in the Paris DL in a fifth fastest of all time 3:50 performance. In Boston in February, St. Pierre placed a narrow 2nd behind Hull in a 3000m. The following week at the Millrose Games, she turned the tables on the Aussie and blasted a new American record in the mile for a win in 4:16.41. Her indoor campaign culminated in a World Indoor gold medal in the 3000m in a blistering time of 8:20.87, 3rd fastest ever at the distance. In that race, she beat none other than Gudaf Tsegay.

At the US Trials this year, St. Pierre put 14,500m of racing in her legs, winning the 5000m and leading the 1500m final for over 1400m before coming in a narrow third less than a second behind the winner Hiltz. Had she sat out the 5000m and possibly won the 1500m, we likely would not be graced with such lip-smacking odds, but here we are, ready to cash a nice $400 check if things break our way perfectly.

She’s got the strength, the close, the racing savvy, the experience, the resume and the gosh darn grit to bully her way to the front, and if the house winds up taking all that money dumped on Kipyegon, I hope they start a track league of their own.

Men’s 800m

The Case for Bryce Hoppel at +900

This one is a bit tricky, as I told all of you that upsetters never lay one down for anything less than 10/1, but the truth is that we laid one down for Hoppel last week at +2000, a ridiculous come up that the house surely regrets, shifting the lines to +900 after what can only be described as a run of the century… until Hoppel torches the field in Paris to become the first American man since Dave Wottle in 1972 to win the 800m.

Draftkings is now trying to back away from us at the altar, offering $20 for us to back out of the bet, but we’re already married and I’m looking at honeymoon spots. You told me you loved me Draftkings. I’m a sucker for romance, and big payouts.

After a relatively unexciting past couple of years, the men’s 800m has seen an onslaught of fast times through DL races this year. Three guys (Djamel Sedjati, Emmanuel Wanyonyi and Gabriel Tual) have run 1:41 and 9 guys have run faster than Hoppel’s PR of 1:42.77. But here is the thing…these speedsters all did it in one shot, rabbited races in Monaco and Paris, ok, and 3 at the Kenyan national champs, but that was only 2 rounds!

Hoppel ran his 1:42.77 PR in the US Trials final, his third race in 3 days. His result was nearly even-split, with both laps run in 51 seconds. He faced a challenge on the backstraight from Brandon Miller that pushed him to hold the lead, and then hit the jets to clock a 25 second final 200m and win by nearly a second.

They say the 800m is the toughest event to make it through the rounds, with the most opportunity for upsets (we like that). Hoppel has proven himself to be a steady hand in the storm, a smooth-striding, calm Kansan with a popping stride that has gotten him on the last 2 Olympic teams and into the last 3 outdoor World Championships and 2 indoor World Championships. He’s medaled in each of the 2 indoor events with gold coming this last winter.

He's the only one we know of in the field that can run a 25 second 200m to close out a 1:42 race after 3 rounds, and we ain’t backing off of our +2000 stance, Draftkings! We’re riding with Hoppel all the way to glory!

Women’s 800m

The Case for Nia Akins +3500

It would be interesting to know what oddsmakers would do if Athing Mu were in the race. She is the reigning Olympic champion, but had only run the Trials this year, clocking a respectable 1:58 in the semi. Her odds would be heavily reliant on how she would have raced the final, had she made it all the way through that race. If she managed to win the race in the way that it played out, she would have at least a 1:57 SB to her name. How much weight would the oddsmakers pull in Mu’s direction from favorite Keely Hodgkinson, who has run 1:54 this year? We will never know the answer to that and given Mu’s 2:00 5th place performance at the Holloway Classic following the Trials, there is a good chance that she would not have won the OT final, let alone made the team. These are questions only the great oddsmakers in the sky have the answers to.

As it stands, Hodgkinson’s odds are -350, and the American champion’s odds are +3500. Hodgkinson has controlled every race she has entered this year. It may not look like it sometimes, but you can bet that every competitor has her marked, and she affects their actions and reactions as she moves through the field.

Nia Akins has come into her own over the past year. She placed 6th in a PR in Budapest last year after winning the US Championship to make the team. This year, she has furthered her development from a reactive passenger in the pack to a deliberate executioner, coming into races with a plan and being able to put it into action with great results. After missing out on the World Indoor Champs this year, the only race she has placed outside the top 2 spots was the stacked 800m race at the Pre Classic won by Hodgkinson. Akins came 4th. The 2nd place finishes on her season resume have been in championship rounds. She’s been able to take control on the domestic scene when it counts. The competition is much stiffer on the world stage, and a plan will have to take into account the power of athletes who have their own designs and can skillfully execute. It’s a high stakes game, but that’s why we like it. If Akins can take her plans to another level of speed, we’ll have $350 extra of walkin’ around money.

You may have noticed throughout this process that we’re only looking at the 800m and 1500m. It’s the belief of those in the TRACKLND front offices that those are the most volatile events. If we’ve learned anything about this sport, it’s that anything can happen, and you can never be too certain. It’s why we love to see certainty reflected in the odds. It took the greatest miler of all time 3 cracks at the 1500m to finally come away with the win, and even then, old El G only got it by .11 over Bernard Lagat. We would have had our money on Rui Silva in that dust up, likely at +10000. We’d have lost our $10 but boy would we have had the ride of our lives over that rumored 49.xx last lap for the man from Portugal. $1,000 had the purchasing power of $1,663 in 2004. That’s a lot of Crunch Wrap Supremes!

You may also notice that our upset picks are all American. Not sure if that says more about us or the faith of the books in the red, white and blue. But let me tell you something, Draftkings, these colors do run!

Vive la Upset!