Of Bulls & Bears

Photo of Molly Seidel by Joe Hale. Photo of Scott Fauble by Ryo Gokita.

Words: Jeff Merrill

Of Bulls & Bears

Late last week I was stewing on the best way to dissect the Olympic Trials Marathon field, not exactly to try and predict the outcome, but to imagine what kind of race might unfold.  Once every four years, the question on the tips of all your running friends’ lips is:

“Who do you think is going to make the team?”

Attempting to answer this question requires one to define a logical process that might lead them to reasonable conclusions for which they can show their work if the predictions seem preposterous to their inside the box thinking friends. I tend to fall back on defining types of runners by looking at their skillsets and past tendencies, but I’m a simple man and tend to throw darts over my shoulder when faced with high pressure situations, so I called up my old friend Geoff Burns. The marathoning knowledge pulsing through his cerebral cortex in one 2-hour long run is more than I will ever know in a lifetime.

Burnsy is a Doctor of Kinesiology and Exercise Sciences and a Master in Biomechanical and Biomedical Engineering. Robots, dude… No, not exactly. He lives in Colorado Springs where he is a Physiologist for Team USA at the Olympic Training Center. To add more feathers into his pluming hat, he’s a US Champion at the 100k distance, a 2:24 marathoner and big-time fan of Japanese marathoning. It is, however, his admiration for Russian literature that qualifies him for the lecture he is about to give me as championship marathoning is as much about the human condition as it is about physiology.

When Burnsy answered the phone in his apartment overlooking the southern Rockies, I imagined him as Brad Pitt’s character in The Big Short- a retired Wall Street trader who has all the answers but chooses to live a life in Colorado and reluctantly take calls from novice wagerers. Colorado Springs being a hub of the sports physiology world, however, puts Burnsy still very much in the game. This eagle’s place is in the sky. He’s still got a lot of flying to do.

First and foremost, we agreed that championship marathoning is the greatest kind of marathoning, and that paced marathoning or attempting to hit a time, although can be a noble pursuit, is not the most captivating experience for a viewer as it is essentially watching someone tire themselves out for a little over 2 hours. We want the game, baby! We want glory dangling like a slab of meat on a hook and the wolves to use both cunning and force to snatch it from the snapping jaws of their adversaries. I then told him about my attempt to define the contenders in the marathon field with some sort of loose archetype that could be pinned to them, like ‘ripper’ or ‘calculated’ or an ‘all-arounder’. After some time mulling it over, he took my initial premise and laid out something much more thoughtful.

He explained that from a physiological standpoint, marathoning is all about assets. How much fuel do you have and when and how do you spend it? He painted a picture of a grid, with the left of the x-axis being ‘Bears’ and the right being ‘Bulls.’

“A Bull charges out hard and can lose the race early but can also win big if they don’t cash out along the way. The Bulls tend to run aggressively and can be volatile.”

“A Bear is more conservative and saves assets. Bears tend to show up in the end, especially if the bulls go red.”

For the y-axis, the top is for Big Spenders, or ‘senders’. They like to dump assets in a hurry by making a big move. The bottom of the y-axis is for the Miserly. These runners tend to be more frugal with their assets and release energy in smaller amounts.

A racer can be a Miserly Bear, beginning conservatively and releasing assets in smaller amounts over time, moving their way up slowly, or a Big Spending Bull, sending it from the get-go and riding the lightning all the way to finish. Empty the tank!

Based off Burnsy’s definitions, we’ve attempted to define some of the top contenders in the fields and give an example that helps to color how they may approach the course in Orlando that is relatively flat with the temperature predicted to be around 60°F at the start. This is not to say that we believe this is how each athlete will attack the race or that they cannot run any other way. One of the most thrilling things in sport for a spectator is when an athlete reverses their typical approach to attack unpredictably based on what they know about their competition- a rope-a-dope if you will. This kind of thing can’t really happen in paced marathons, which is why they’re not as exciting to watch.

We’ve also provided color-coded charts of defining races for each of the model racers. The charts are broken up by 5ks + the final 2.2k and are coded based on the intensity of their actions during the segment:

Buckle your lap belts and prepare for your hair to be blown back. The stakes are high and the real game is about to be played.

Galen Rupp

Big Spending Bear

Rupp is the most accomplished racer in the field and arguably the most experienced. 47-year-old Abdi Abdirahman is in the race, but Rupp has been to more Olympic games (5) and has more world medals (Olympic silver in the 2012 10,000m and Olympic Bronze in the 2016 marathon). Early in his career, Rupp could be classified as a Miserly Bull, relying on his strength to gently ratchet down the pace and try to uncouple himself from his competitors. He tended to get pipped at the end in those days by athletes sitting on him while he did the pace-making. Over the years, and probably because of this, he developed himself into a Big Spending Bear, beginning conservatively, not leading, and then making a big move to dump his assets and quickly get away from the competition. A great example of this is his masterful performance in the 2020 Olympic Trials in Atlanta. Due to the hilly nature of that course, many predicted the winning time would not be under 2:12. Rupp sat in the pack until shortly after halfway when he made a big move to ditch the field and cruise solo to the finish in 2:09:20. His halves were 1:05:41 and 1:03:39.

Rupp’s 2020 Atlanta race in 5k blocks + a 2.2k (2:09:20)

Course Profile: Rolling Hills

Temp at Start: 50°F

Other Big Spending Bears

Aliphine Tuliamuk

Watch the build-up to Tuliamuk’s 2020 Trials win here

Sara Vaughn

Futsum Zienesellasie

Emily Sisson

Big Spending Bull

Before moving to the marathon, Sisson put on one of the strongest performances that we’ve ever seen from an American athlete on the track. Emphasis on strength. During the 2020 Olympic Trials of 2021, she led the 10,000m Final nearly from start to finish to win in an Olympic Trials record of 31:03. She stretched the field the entire way until all of them tumbled from the train in the 100-degree heat. Back then, we likened the performance to shooting the moon in a game of hearts. She led every round and took every hand. In 2022, she broke the American Record for the marathon (2:18:29). In a paced race won in 2:14, she crushed those competing in her realm with half splits of 1:09:26 and 1:09:03, moving aggressively over more than one block. The graph below shows where she pressed and the sustained effort throughout, negative splitting her half marathons even while pressing through the first. This kind of effort is difficult to maintain, running at the front in a championship race with no pacers, but if there is someone who can attempt it, it would be the woman who devastated the 10,000m field in the heat of the moment in Eugene.

Sisson’s 2022 Chicago race

Course Profile: Flat and Fast

Temp at Start: 47°F

Another Big Spending Bull…

Conner Mantz

Mantz is far and away the pick of the people in the men’s race. As it sits the moment of this write-up, he holds 74% of first place votes in the Bandit Running Trials Pick’em. The BYU grad has been touted as the next great American marathoner and holds a PR of 2:07:47 from Chicago last Fall. Experts point to his prowess on the cross-country course as an indicator that he has the strength to excel at 26.2. A 2-time NCAA XC champion, his championship race from 2021 was particularly impressive as he relentlessly pressed the pace from early on and even split his 5ks both astoundingly at 14:16. Burnsy is skeptical of excitement around any XC or 10k specialist, mostly because he isn’t convinced that 10,000m running and cross country running are good indicators of what makes a champion marathoner. 10k is a whole lot less than 42.2k. 2:07:47 is the best time in the field achieved in the current Olympic cycle but as has been discussed, paced racing is far different than championship racing. Mantz’s chart below from Chicago shows his hard efforts in the early stages, a strong hold through the mid to late part of the race, and then a slowing into the finish producing half splits of 1:03:21 and 1:04:26. On a course with 90-degree and U-turns, any cracking tell will be visible to the pack behind champing at the bit.

Mantz’s 2023 Chicago race (2:07:47)

Course profile: Flat and Fast

Temp at Start: 47°F

Other Big Spending Bulls

CJ Alberston

Keira D’Amato

Sara Hall

Kellyn Taylor

Big Spending Bull *just right of center

Molly Seidel

Seidel’s magical run in Tokyo securing the Olympic Bronze was a show of strength. She stayed with the front of the pack in the early goings when the race got out slow due to the heat (82 degrees at the start) and was aggressive in the middle to late parts of the race, pressing at many points to whittle the lead pack down to a few contenders. When the eventual gold medalist, Peres Jepchirchir made her move, Seidel had expended all her assets and slowed to the finish having done the work earlier to distance herself from the 4th place finisher. Her slowing pace was also influenced by the slight uphill finish, reflected by the same showing for her competitors. A great accounting of her funds and what she would have to spend against the field to arrive with nothing left. Her half splits were 1:15:14 and 1:12:32. I went back and forth with Seidel on whether to put her closer to the Bears, but I believe that in a championship race, you will not find Seidel adrift from the lead pack early on, landing her with the Bulls.

Seidel’s 2020 Tokyo Olympics race (2:27:46)

Course Profile: Early Hill + mostly gentle

Temp at Start: 82°F

Scott Fauble

Miserly Bear

Faubs might not find this description flattering and I’m sure he could make some very good points as to why he is closer to the Big Spending Bear category, but I would still put him south of the x-axis. He’s known for his dependability. As the consistent top American in Boston, he placed seventh overall there 3 times measuring his efforts precisely throughout… counting his beans… sorry. In the graph below of his 2022 Boston Marathon race (an unrabbited Championship-style affair), he got out with the leaders through the first 5k before taking stock of his reserves and easing off the gas, dropping back significantly. Around 30k, he began running splits as fast or faster than the overall leader of the race to pass many of his competitors, destroying their spirits over Heartbreak Hill. His first half marathon and second half marathon were split identically at 1:04:26.

Fauble’s 2022 Boston race (2:08:52)

Course Profile: Rolling Downhill + Backend Hills

Temp at Start: 48°F

Faubs is going to love it if the Bulls charge out of the gates, and will use the turnaround viewpoints to measure his spending all the way up to the line, likely making it a nail biter for the Burrito Mafia.

Other Miserly Bears

Des Linden

Nell Rojas

Zach Panning

Betsy Saina

Miserly Bull

Stories of Betsy Saina’s current fitness are rapidly spreading throughout the running world. She has been training high up on the red dirt roads of Kenya and by all accounts is incredibly fit. In her first Olympic Trials race as an American, how she approaches championship style with the level of competition she will be presented with is somewhat of a mystery. Looking at her effort in the 2023 Tokyo marathon, I would place her as a Miserly Bull. She let the leaders go fairly quickly, but in doing so, did not drift to the second pack of women, choosing to chart her own path- a bull-like tendency, although not particularly an aggressive one. She measured her effort, running her own race between packs to the final kilometers, which wound up being some of her strongest of the day, but only slightly. In her charting, there isn’t a moment when she attacked particularly hard, shifting her pace dramatically or moving position, so there is no dark green block on the graph. Her half splits were 1:10:48 and 1:10:52.

Saina’s 2023 Tokyo race (2:21:40)

Course Profile: Net Downhill to Flat and Fast

Temp at Start: 48°F

A major difference between paced racing and championship racing is that the goal in championship racing is placing rather than time. Racing for place the vast majority of the time requires a competitor to be aggressive at some point to overtake their competition. Many of the racers in the field likely fall under the x-axis in the Miserly category on paper, largely because they are used to running paced marathons where the goal is time. This approach requires them to spend wisely and not risk big sends, lest they dump too much of their savings in the process. Making the team will likely require the 6 individuals that achieve it to be aggressive at some point in the race. They will have to know their assets well, because they will be required to make decisions in real time based on the decisions that others make… which are decisions likely made to put them at risk. As the Big Spending Bull, Mike Tyson said: “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

This will not be a marathon where everybody wins. Fortune favors the bold… at the right time and place.

To all who will watch this gritty race: Welcome.

Make your picks here: Bandit Running Pick’em